On a robust parameter-free pricing principle: Fair value and risk adjusted premium.

Dr. Werner Hürlimann

This paper was prepared for the 1st International IAA Life Colloquium (June 10-13, 2007, Stockholm, Sweden).

For the space of all feasible risks with arbitrary mean and standard deviation and a fixed limit, the use of the rule of thumb "actuarial premium = mean + half of standard deviation" is justified. It is shown that this actuarial premium coincides with the maximum of the minimum risk adjusted premium obtained from a simple solvency model under the assumption that the supervising authority chooses the minimum level of "fair" actuarial premium and values the insolvency risk with the risk-neutral distortion risk measure. A case study using dynamic Monte Carlo simulation of the balance sheet of a portfolio of endowment life insurance shows that the introduced profit loading absorbs in average the random claims fluctuations.


Dr. Werner Hürlimann, IRIS senior consultant for the insurance sector. Fair Value and Risk Adjusted Premium.pdf 129.00 kB
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